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They say that numbers never lie…

12.07.2021 - However, just looking at numbers will not tell you why. For me at least, “why” is very important. You will not get to why with statistics.

Making conclusions before the first season is even over is a big no-no to me. Engine cycle is 8 to 9 seasons long, and we will not see its full effect until it's finished.

You see, every time new engine rules are introduced, the teams with most money will be even more dominate for the first few seasons. This time round, even more teams have concentrated solely on the development of their engines. Developing 5 different parts was too much. I even protested that to DebiK. Only top 4 teams were able to develop their car, engine and ES. Ford tried, and they lost a lot of ground because of it. We also mustn't forget that Trabant was a lot less competitive because they forgot to sign their suppliers. Only Jordan managed to fully develop their car because the use supplier's engine. So this is how we ended with 5 developed cars, and two teams that were hampered by something. Every other team put their chips on the future success. This is the reason why only seven teams managed to scored points. I expect that Formula 1 will become more competitive than ever after two to four seasons, when all the teams will have developed engines. In the past, Red Bull always had the best engine. This time this won’t be the case. They will have third best engine at best.

Furthermore, the reason for Red Bull’s dominance is McLaren’s lack of pace. Porsche has made a big step forward, but they are not on the level McLaren was when previous engine rules were introduced. Those that pay close attention to Formula 1 know that the main reason for McLaren’s lack of form is not money, but because three of their design team leaders have retired in the last four seasons. To make thing worse, even more car designers have retired in that time. Compared to Red Bull, their employees’ skills are much lower and even more importantly, their experience is much lower. I expect McLaren will fall to 4th, maybe even 5th place by the time new engine rules are introduced.

A lot of people also don’t understand that the amount of money you get from sponsors is influenced by team’s rating, popularity, image and drivers’ rating. The latter has a huge impact, some people forget that. For example, Red Bull drivers’ rating is 6.981,906 and 6.484,375. On the other hand, Pegaso drivers’ rating is only 2.768,660 and 2.000,971. Even compared to McLaren of Porsche, their drivers’ rating is more than 2k higher. From my experience, if combined drivers’ rating falls from 10k to 9k, you can get around 2% less when you sign all three season sponsors. McLaren’s income is the second highest, and that could mean around 2 million less for them if everything else is equal.

Team image has also a big influence. However, if you compare just team’s income, you also have to take into the account how much they spend on their image. For example, Red Bull spends around 8 million per season on their commercial department and LKR spent less than 100k in season 38. If their team image would be 1.931,236 instead of 72,182 and if their combine drivers’ rating almost 12k instead of 3k, their income wouldn’t be just 18 million.

The devil is in the details...